Ask any former living president, or read the dead one’s memoirs or presidential documents in the national archives, and you will find at least one thing they have in common: they came to understand their power was largely a function of the will of the people. Yes, presidents do have specific constitutional powers, but without significant approval ratings they lose institutional support from federal bureaucracies and members of congress. I expect our new president will become an historical touchstone for this reality. He enters office with the lowest approval ratings of any newly inaugurated president and those may prove to be the highest of his presidency. (See http://time.com/4636142/donald-trump-inauguration-polls-approval-ratings/.) In the vernacular of Wall Street, he is a slam-dunk “short.”
That is not to say presidents don’t learn this and recover. President Reagan, known to many as “the great communicator,” was keenly aware of keeping what he called “the common man” by his side throughout his presidency. He had polling, although it was fairly rudimentary by today’s standards, and he would even note in his diary how many people gathered on the sidewalks as his motorcade passed. When the number of people who waved enthusiastically declined, he would take to television and give a national address, which were covered by the three big networks. It worked. Not only would the gears of government work for him, Speaker Tip O’Neill, his partisan nemesis in the House, had to make deals.
President Trump has neither the skills nor the temperament to manage this phenomenon. 140-character insults via Twitter will not endear him to the will of the people, nor has he surrounded himself (as other presidents have, including Reagan) with top-flight advisors and cabinet members. Most, if not all of his cabinet picks are, at best, benchwarmers in the game of governing. As attractive as ‘outsider’ status is during a campaign, it is crippling when the task of governing begins. Just ask President Carter.
As I have written before, your future and the future of this country are in your hands. And, although the challenge seems daunting at times, you and your family, neighbors and friends have the power. (See https://www.indivisibleguide.com/web.)
Rejecting Trump at every turn will quickly degrade his power. He will lose what I call referential power, critical to the support of those who actually make things happen. I expect once Senator McConnell and Speaker Ryan get what they want from Trump, Mike Pence will be sworn in. Pence may not be what many of you want, but probably no worse (and perhaps even better) than Trump. And, 2020 will arrive before you know it.